A time to plant and a time to uproot

.Why is the bull market in the U.S coming to an end

One of the the powerfull time cycles which has the biggest effect on U.S  stock markets price movments is the twenty year cycle

In the last 150 years this cycle has been governing the price movment   consistently. once it goes upwards in a long bull market like 1947-1966 , 1982-2000 and once it moves sideways or downwards like 1929-1947,  1966-1984. However it is important to emphasize that the sideway movement takes place in a very large range from 50% downwards to 100% upwards.

If we look at the S&p 500 we see that on the years 2000 and 2007 it reached its tops more or less at the same price level ( at 2000 it reached 1552 and at 2007 it reached 1576). we also see two bottoms at 2002 and 2009 one at price of  768 and the other at 666. that is what is meant by saying "sideways movement at a very large range".

The following chart will show the action of the bear twenty year cycle on the s&p 500 , comparing the time from 1960 to 1980 with 2000 untill 2020.

image

Although the timing of trend changes is not a 100% parallel, compared to the early cycle, it is evident that the price course is nearly completed although it may take some time for distribution to run its course.

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